EVOLUTION AND TERRITORIAL DYNAMICS OF THE HOMICIDE RATE IN THE STATE OF MINAS GERAIS

Abstract

By assuming the hypothesis that territorial characteristics are, among other factors, an important determinant of criminality and that, consequently, the occurrences of homicides are not randomly distributed in space and may present spatial dependence and heterogeneity, this article aimed to analyze the evolution and territorial dynamics of homicides in the state of Minas Gerais in the years 2000, 2010 and 2018. To this end, (i) we calculated the homicide rate, adjusted for 100,000 inhabitants and standardized for the demographic structure of 2018, in the 853 municipalities and in the 12 mesoregions of the state, using the local empirical Bayesian estimates; (ii) we estimate the univariate Moran spatial correlation I of homicide rates and present the maps of univariate Spatial Clusters, “Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), defining the spatial structure of violent crime in the state, with the delimitation of spatial clusters (High-High), (Low-Low), (High-Low) and (Low-High). In summary, the first issue to be highlighted was the process of increasing homicide rates in the municipalities. The second issue is that this increase was characterized by its internalization in the state. This behavior of the internalization of the incidence of violent crime resulted in the convergence of the homicide rates of the municipalities in the state, with the regions, previously considered relatively safer, approaching or, in some cases, even surpassing the rates verified in the metropolitan region.